Can Space-Based Solar Power Become a New Blue Ocean？

Recently, the news that Musk's team is inspecting China's photovoltaic industry has drawn attention. Previously, Musk proposed a plan to deploy an annual solar energy network of 100 gigawatts of AI satellites in space (5.530, -0.06, -1.07%), which is equivalent to about 1/6 of the global new photovoltaic installations, making the concept of "space photovoltaics" extremely popular.

Is space photovoltaics feasible? Can China's photovoltaic industry seize the opportunities in this vast market?

Let's first take a look at space photovoltaics. This is a technology where photovoltaic components are installed on spacecraft or satellites to convert solar energy into electrical energy and supply power to the spacecraft. The long-term goal is to achieve "space power generation - wireless transmission in the form of microwaves or lasers - ground reception". Its advantages lie in the high intensity of sunlight in space, which is free from the influence of day and night and weather conditions, and the energy density can reach 7 to 10 times that of ground systems.

The combination of photovoltaics and space has a long history. In 1958, solar cells were first used on satellites; a few years later, China's second artificial satellite also employed solar cells.

Why has the market's attention to space-based photovoltaics continued to rise over the past two years? On one hand, the reusable rocket technology has reduced the launch costs, and the global commercial space industry has accelerated its development, making the space economy gradually become a reality. On the other hand, data centers are being rapidly constructed, increasing the overall demand for power supply and cooling. The ground infrastructure may struggle to keep up, while the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation in space is much higher than that on the ground.

It should be said that the long-term potential of space photovoltaics is huge, but it is still in the early stage of exploration and verification. The industrialization process is affected by factors such as technological development and economic viability, and large-scale development still requires some time. For instance, gallium arsenide cells have high conversion efficiency, excellent radiation resistance, and high reliability, but they are costly; perovskite cells have advantages such as high flexibility and low cost, but their reliability needs to be verified.

More crucially, the economic aspect: According to institutional estimates, the current cost of electricity generated by space-based photovoltaics is approximately $2 to $3 per kilowatt-hour, while the cost of electricity from ground-based photovoltaics has dropped to $0.03 to $0.05 per kilowatt-hour, with the difference reaching up to a hundredfold. If the future launch costs cannot be reduced to less than one-tenth of the current level and the efficiency of photovoltaics cannot be doubled, space-based photovoltaics will struggle to be economically viable.

In the face of potential opportunities, China's photovoltaic industry possesses multiple advantages: in terms of technological research and development, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, research institutions broke the NREL laboratory efficiency record 27 times, with the global share rising to 55% and doubling compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan"; in terms of manufacturing capabilities, the photovoltaic cell production in the "14th Five-Year Plan" was 5.5 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and the production capacity in 2025 will account for more than 90% of the global total; in terms of cost advantages, over the past decade, China has helped reduce the average electricity cost of global photovoltaic power generation projects by 80%.

Regarding space-based photovoltaics, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are making rapid progress in their cutting-edge research and development. The Photovoltaic Science and Technology National Key Laboratory located at Trina Solar (20.220, -0.02, -0.10%) has broken the world record for power output of a 3.1-square-meter large-area perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem module; Longi Green Energy (18.460, -0.13, -0.70%) has established the Future Energy Space Laboratory; Jinko Solar (7.900, -0.10, -1.25%) and Jintai Technology have jointly promoted the research and industrialization process of perovskite tandem battery technology. Overall, space-based photovoltaics remains a marathon that requires time and patience. With dreams in mind, being bold in thinking and action, and being down-to-earth and efficient in work, developing more competitive and high-efficiency photovoltaic products, coupled with breakthroughs in future commercial space transportation capabilities and continuous reduction in launch costs, this trillion-dollar potential blue ocean of space-based photovoltaics may not be too far away.