Photovoltaic exports soared by 470%! The Middle East has suddenly exploded

In the past two days, a set of data has spread rapidly within the circle. It can even be said that it's a bit explosive.

According to data from some institutions, from January to March this year, China's photovoltaic module exports to the Middle East soared by 470% year-on-year, and the exports of energy storage systems even skyrocketed to 620%. What is even more intriguing is that over 90% of the orders are long-term agreements with a term of more than three years.

What does this mean? It's not simply about selling a little more goods; rather, the order structure is undergoing a change, shifting from short-term order competition to long-term binding.

More importantly, all of this occurred at a delicate point in time.

On one side, trade barriers in the European and American markets are constantly being intensified, and policy thresholds are being raised layer by layer. On the other side, the Middle East market suddenly saw a significant increase in volume. The Middle East, once renowned for its oil, is now re-entering the global energy landscape in a different way.

The question also arises: Is this wave of Middle East fever merely a temporary opportunity amid geopolitical disturbances? Is there a real shift in the focus of China's photovoltaic industry going global?

Why the Middle East? This wave of demand explosion is not a sudden heating up

Although the customs data for March has not been officially disclosed yet, some clues can already be seen from the trends of the first two months. According to data from China's customs, in January-February 2026, the export value of photovoltaic modules across the country was 22.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%. The total export volume was 72.0777 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%. Overall, the export of photovoltaic power has not seen a significant increase; instead, it has even slightly declined.

But the real change lies within the structure. The market share of the Middle East and North Africa has quietly risen to 25.6%, making it the second-largest export region after Europe at one stroke. In other words, it's not that they are sold more, but that there has been a significant change in where they are sold.

If we add in the industry dynamics of March, this trend becomes even clearer. China Power Construction Corporation has won a large contract for 2.1GW of photovoltaic power and 7.75GWh of energy storage in ABU Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with a contract value of approximately 13.962 billion yuan.

That is to say, the growth of the photovoltaic market in the Middle East is not an accidental fluctuation but a concentrated manifestation of the trend.

Then the question arises: Why now? Why the Middle East? If we break it down, this round of demand explosion is driven by at least three forces simultaneously.

The first layer is policy. Middle Eastern countries are advancing their energy transition at an almost accelerated pace. Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" proposes that by 2030, the installed capacity of renewable energy should reach 100-130GW, and the proportion of clean energy should increase to 50%. The United Arab Emirates has also clearly stated in its "2050 Net Zero Strategy" that it will increase the proportion of clean energy to 50%, with renewable energy accounting for 44%.

When these goals move from documents to implementation, they will turn into a series of specific projects, tenders and orders. As Zhang Chuanwei, the chairman of Mingyang Group, said at the Boao Forum last November, the Middle East is promoting gigawatt-level wind and photovoltaic projects, and the market demand is extremely strong.

The second layer is the demand itself. Electricity consumption in the Middle East is growing much faster than many people imagine. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that from 2000 to 2024, electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa has increased by more than three times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7%, significantly higher than the global average.

On the one hand, the electricity consumption for air conditioners caused by extreme high temperatures is a rigid demand. In countries like Saudi Arabia, the summer temperature often exceeds 50℃, and the air conditioning load can account for 70% of the peak electricity consumption. On the other hand, new major electricity consumers such as AI data centers and seawater desalination systems are emerging. These are all high-energy-consuming infrastructures that require stable power supply.

When demand keeps rising, the power system must seek new support points, and photovoltaic power is precisely one of the most cost-effective options.

The third layer is the deeper energy security.

At the beginning of this year, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz became tense again, and the uncertainty of oil and gas supply was magnified once more. This is a very direct reminder to the Gulf countries that have long relied on fossil fuels for power generation: energy can be abundant, but it is not necessarily safe. Against this backdrop, accelerating the construction of domestic renewable energy is not only for transformation but also for controllability.

When policies are driving, demand is pulling, and security is exerting pressure, the explosive growth of the photovoltaic market in the Middle East is actually not hard to understand. It may seem sudden, but behind the scenes, foreshadowing had long been laid.

Orders are soaring, but the cake in the Middle East is not that delicious

From the perspective of Chinese enterprises, this round of explosive growth in the Middle East market has indeed brought about a long-awaited high-quality growth.

Unlike in the past when they simply competed on price and shipment volume, this time it's more like an upgrade of their roles. From CATL and BYD to Sungrow Power Supply and PowerChina, these leading enterprises are no longer merely selling equipment but have begun to deeply participate in the construction of local energy systems.

For instance, Sungrow Power Supply provided a complete set of systems for the 7.8GWh energy storage project in Saudi Arabia. This kind of cooperation is essentially a deeper binding. The order is no longer a one-time deal but a community relationship that often lasts for more than a decade or even longer.

But the problem precisely lies here: the deeper the binding, the higher the requirements and the more real the risks.

First of all, it is the environment itself. The Middle East market may seem sunny, but anyone who has actually worked on projects knows that it is a place that is not friendly to equipment. High temperatures above 50℃ during the day and frequent sandstorms pose long-term challenges to components, inverters, and energy storage systems. Once the system experiences a decline in power generation efficiency and an increase in failure rate, the operation and maintenance costs will soar. By then, the orders signed today are very likely to become cost black holes in the future.

Secondly, the rules are changing. Middle Eastern countries are gradually raising the threshold for localization. Take Saudi Arabia as an example. Government projects generally require a local component ratio (LCR) of 35% to 50%. This means that the simple export model no longer works. To secure orders, one must build factories, bring in technology, cultivate local teams, and even participate in the establishment of the local industrial system. To put it more straightforwardly, what the Middle East wants is not just products, but capabilities.

Finally, there is the variable, uncertainty, which is underestimated by many people.

Since 2026, the repeated fluctuations in the situation across the Strait of Hormuz have begun to affect the project implementation level. The rise in logistics costs and the extension of transportation cycles have forced some ongoing projects to slow down their pace, and even led to equipment delays and on-site shutdowns.

For large-scale projects that often reach the GW level, delays in the construction period are no minor issue. Once the grid connection window is missed, the losses are often magnified several times over.

More realistically, many projects require 15 or 20 years of long-term operation and maintenance, which means that engineers not only have to go out but also stay for a long time. In the complex geopolitical environment, this is no longer merely a matter of cost.

So, on the surface, the Middle East is a new market that is booming; But on a deeper level, it is more like an upgraded version of competition. The opportunities are indeed huge, but the threshold is also higher than that of any previous market.

Written at the end

Looking back from the perspective of the first quarter of 2026, this round of explosive growth in photovoltaic demand in the Middle East is more like a magnifying glass. What it magnifies is not only the growth of orders, but also the change in the industry's logic.

In the past, China's photovoltaic products going global were more about selling wherever there was demand. And now, it is becoming a situation where wherever there is a system, they are flocking in. The high growth of the Middle East market is essentially not a simple shift in demand, but rather the result of the superimposition of policy, energy structure and security concerns.

But precisely because of this, this market will not be an easy place to make money. In a sense, the Middle East is not a safe haven but more like a screening ground.

Those who can remain are no longer just the players with the lowest costs, but enterprises that have passed the test in terms of technology, delivery, operation and globalization capabilities.

So, rather than viewing this wave of popularity as an opportunity, it is better to see it as a signal: China's photovoltaic industry going global is shifting from scale competition to capability competition.