Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-07-20 Origin: Site
The global energy system is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a "fossil fuel-dominated" structure to a "new energy-centered" paradigm. Boasting zero-carbon attributes, universal resource accessibility, and large-scale application advantages, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has become a core pillar for the construction of the new power system. After more than a decade of industrial development, the PV industry has completely abandoned its primary development model reliant on policy subsidies and extensive capacity expansion. At present, the competitive logic and core development momentum of the industry have undergone fundamental shifts: technological iteration has evolved from process optimization to underlying principle breakthroughs, industrial competition has transitioned from scale-driven involution to value-based stratification, and application models have upgraded from standalone power generation to integrated source-grid-load-storage coordination. Different from superficial industry analyses focusing on installed capacity and output prices, this paper systematically explores the structural changes and future development logic of the PV industry from four core dimensions: core technological innovation, industrial value chain restructuring, systemic adaptation bottlenecks, and long-term development paradigms.
The core competitiveness of the PV industry consistently centers on two key indicators: photoelectric conversion efficiency and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The current industrial stage marks a critical watershed for technological upgrading, featuring the completion of iteration for conventional technologies and the large-scale industrialization of disruptive next-generation technologies, thereby driving a leapfrog improvement in industrial technical barriers.
In the realm of mature technologies, P-type PERC cell production capacity has been fully phased out, while N-type technology has achieved full industrial penetration and become the industry standard. After years of capacity cultivation and process optimization, two mainstream N-type technologies, TOPCon and HJT, have completely resolved early-stage bottlenecks including low mass production yield, high costs, and complex processes. Current industrial measurement data indicates that all newly commissioned PV production capacity in China adopts N-type technology. TOPCon dominates the mainstream market with a market share exceeding 70%, benefiting from its compatibility with renovated legacy production lines and superior cost performance. HJT technology, characterized by lower attenuation rates, better temperature coefficients, and streamlined manufacturing processes, is increasingly applied in high-end distributed and overseas high-efficiency module markets, with its mass production conversion efficiency exceeding 26.5%. Meanwhile, supporting processes for N-type technology, including ultra-thin silicon wafers, silver-free metallization, double-sided double-glass encapsulation, and intelligent packaging, have reached full maturity. These advancements continuously boost power generation gain per watt and drive a sustained decline in the LCOE of PV power.
In the frontier technology sector, perovskite and perovskite-silicon tandem cells have moved beyond laboratory research and entered formal small-scale mass production and scenario verification, emerging as the most transformative technological variable in the industry. The mass production efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells exceeds 20%, while the laboratory efficiency of tandem cells breaks 33%, and the pilot mass production efficiency stably remains above 28% — far surpassing the theoretical efficiency limit of traditional monocrystalline silicon cells. Compared with silicon-based PV technology, perovskite technology features simplified preparation procedures, lower raw material consumption, excellent low-light performance, and strong flexibility, which can significantly reduce energy consumption and production costs in PV manufacturing. Leading PV enterprises and research institutions have completed the construction of pilot production lines, with multiple GW-level tandem cell production lines put into trial operation. These cutting-edge products are primarily applied in segmented scenarios such as building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), flexible PV modules, and portable power generation, marking the official arrival of the "tandem cell era" in the PV industry and laying a solid technical foundation for efficiency doubling and cost reduction in the next decade.
Over the past few years, the core contradiction of the PV industry lies in the overexpansion of production capacity far exceeding market demand growth, triggering industry-wide price competition and the continuous exit of small and medium-sized enterprises. Currently, the industrial supply-demand pattern has gradually rationalized, and the dividends of blind scale expansion have completely faded. Competition across all industrial links has shifted from homogenized involution to refined, differentiated, and high-end value competition, driving a comprehensive restructuring of the industrial value system.
In the upstream raw material segment, the industry has bid farewell to the drastic profit fluctuations of silicon materials and entered a stable low-margin development stage. Multiple rounds of capacity clearance have eliminated inefficient and high-energy-consumption production capacity in the silicon material and silicon wafer sectors, bringing the industrial capacity utilization rate back to a reasonable range. The focus of competition has shifted from production scale to product stability, low-carbon manufacturing, and high-purity material adaptability. Leading enterprises maintain dominance in the high-end market relying on integrated capacity layout, ultra-low-energy production processes, and independent research and development of high-purity N-type specialized materials. Small and medium-sized raw material enterprises have gradually withdrawn from the general market and focused on segmented supporting fields, steering the industry from disorderly competition to steady concentration.
In the midstream module segment, differentiated competition has become the mainstream, with low-priced homogenized products being phased out of the market. PV modules are no longer standardized single products but form a clear tiered system tailored to diverse application scenarios. Large-scale ground power stations prioritize high-power, high-stability, low-attenuation high-efficiency modules to maximize full-lifecycle power generation returns. Industrial and commercial distributed PV systems adopt lightweight and highly adaptable modules compatible with roof load limits and diverse installation conditions. Residential PV products focus on cost performance, aesthetic design, and low operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Customized modules for emerging scenarios such as BIPV and flexible PV integrate architectural functionality with power generation performance. Furthermore, the core competitiveness of module enterprises has upgraded from simple assembly capability to comprehensive strengths including technological R&D, system matching, brand services, and full-lifecycle quality assurance.
In the downstream application segment, business models have been thoroughly upgraded, breaking the single profit model reliant on power sales. Traditional PV power stations suffer from weak risk resistance and low investment returns due to their sole dependence on electricity revenue. Currently, innovative models including PV-storage integration, comprehensive energy services, virtual power plants, and green power trading have been fully implemented. PV power stations have evolved from standalone power generation units into adjustable, controllable, and schedulable comprehensive energy units. Supported by energy storage systems to mitigate power generation fluctuations, participate in grid peak shaving and frequency regulation, trade green power certificates, and provide energy-saving renovation services, PV projects have achieved significantly improved comprehensive returns, unlocking new value space for the industry.
Against the backdrop of rapid technological iteration and continuous capacity optimization, the core contradiction of the PV industry has transformed from insufficient capacity and backward technology to the poor adaptability of large-scale PV power generation to the modern power system. Consumption bottlenecks, grid connection constraints, and systemic supporting deficits have become the primary pain points restricting the high-quality and sustainable development of the industry.
First, the intermittency and volatility of PV power generation create grid consumption challenges. Solar power generation is strictly dependent on irradiance, featuring concentrated daytime power output, zero generation at night, and strong weather-induced fluctuations. Large-scale grid integration poses impacts on grid voltage and frequency stability. In major new energy-rich regions of China, existing grid frameworks and dispatching mechanisms are designed for stable thermal power units and cannot fully adapt to the intermittent characteristics of PV power, resulting in localized curtailment of PV power, especially prominent in large-scale centralized PV bases and mountain PV projects in northwest China.
Second, supporting industrial chains and standard systems lag behind technological iteration. Emerging technologies including perovskite-silicon tandem cells, flexible PV, and BIPV have achieved rapid industrial application, yet corresponding industrial technical standards, testing and certification systems, and O&M specifications remain incomplete, leading to uneven product quality and imperfect after-sales services. In addition, the iteration speed of supporting equipment such as PV inverters, brackets, and cables lags behind that of cells and modules, resulting in insufficient system matching and limiting the power generation potential of high-efficiency PV components.
Third, scenario application lacks refined management. Homogeneous and extensive construction still prevails in PV application. Some agro-PV and fishery-PV complementary projects fail to balance agricultural/aquacultural production with power generation, resulting in low land resource utilization efficiency. Residential PV systems face problems such as non-standard installation, inadequate daily maintenance, and prominent safety hazards. The absence of a refined, compliant, and scientific operational system hinders the high-quality and sustainable development of the industry.
At the current critical stage of industrial transformation, the PV industry will completely abandon its traditional development model and evolve toward four major directions centered on the construction of the new power system: low-carbon manufacturing, intelligent O&M, integrated application, and global industrial layout, ultimately upgrading from a scale-driven industry to a core pillar industry of high-quality green development.
The manufacturing sector will achieve full-process low-carbon upgrading. Driven by the in-depth implementation of dual-carbon policies, low-carbon transformation of the PV industrial chain has become a core requirement. In the future, green electricity will be fully popularized in the production of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and modules. Ultra-low-energy manufacturing processes and recycling technologies will be widely applied to realize full-lifecycle carbon neutrality of PV products, further consolidating the inherent low-carbon advantages of PV power generation. Meanwhile, continuous iteration of tandem cell technology will steadily improve mass production efficiency and reduce LCOE, accelerating the comprehensive replacement of traditional fossil energy.
The operation and maintenance sector will realize full-scale intelligent upgrading. Artificial intelligence, big data, and Internet of Things technologies are deeply integrated with PV systems. Intelligent inspection, fault early warning, precise O&M, and intelligent power generation forecasting have been widely applied, substantially reducing O&M costs and improving the stability and utilization rate of PV power generation. In addition, PV power stations are fully connected to virtual power plants and smart grid systems, enabling intelligent scheduling of power generation and precise coordination of source-grid-load-storage resources, which fundamentally solves the grid connection volatility problem of PV power.
The application sector will achieve in-depth multi-scenario integration. The "PV +" model continues to innovate, with agro-PV, fishery-PV, and animal husbandry-PV complementary models realizing triple benefits of ecology, agriculture, and power generation. BIPV is gradually replacing traditional building materials to support zero-carbon buildings. Integrated systems such as PV + energy storage, PV + charging piles, and PV + industrial energy conservation have formed comprehensive energy service systems, transforming PV equipment from standalone power generators into fundamental carriers of social low-carbon development.
The industry will advance high-quality global layout. With the stabilization of domestic industrial competition, leading enterprises continue to deepen global strategic deployment. Leveraging advantages in technology, production capacity, and cost, they participate in global energy transformation. Through local overseas production and in-depth regional cooperation, enterprises effectively avoid trade barriers, build a global R&D, manufacturing, and service system, and enhance the global discourse power of China’s PV industry.
The PV industry is undergoing profound structural transformation, stepping out of the extensive scale competition era and entering a high-quality development stage driven by technology, prioritizing value, adapting to power system needs, and featuring diversified integration. The full maturity of N-type technology consolidates the industrial foundation, while breakthroughs in tandem cell technology open up long-term development space. Value chain restructuring optimizes the industrial ecosystem, and improved adaptation to the new power system addresses core development bottlenecks. In the future, with continuous technological iteration, innovative business models, and improved supporting systems, PV power generation will further consolidate its position as a major clean energy source, serving as a core support for global energy transition, dual-carbon goal implementation, and new power system construction, and driving comprehensive and in-depth green revolution of the global energy economy.
