The "15th Five-Year Plan" for the photovoltaic industry 2026-02-10
During the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's PV industry achieved leapfrog development: manufacturing output value over 1 trillion yuan, exports over 180 billion US dollars, and cumulative installed capacity entering the terawatt era. Its new installed capacity has been the world's first for 13 consecutive years, with two phases: rapid growth and adjustment. Technological innovation advanced, and industrial chain prices dropped sharply. For the "15th Five-Year Plan", global average annual new installed capacity is expected to be 725-870 GW, China's 238-287 GW. Notably, 2026 new PV installed capacity may drop 23.8%-42.9% year-on-year (first decline since 2020) due to policy wait-and-see, but will recover from 2027. The industry will shift to value competition; the April 2026 PV export tax rebate cancellation will increase costs, accelerate capacity clearance and force technological innovation, focusing on intelligent, green and integrated development to maintain global dominance.
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